Some thoughts about the 7th Circuit opinion on Section 2 in the Wisconsin Voter ID case:

1. This is bad news for the plaintiffs in North Carolina and in places to be determined.  Two circuits have rejected the statistical model of Section 2 liability.

2. The opinion explains the desperation of the Justice Department to enjoin North Carolina voter ID before the election produces evidence unhelpful to the cause.  If minorities turn out at rates greater than before the termination of early voting and same day registration, then it will undermine the theory of the attack on these election integrity measures.

3. The court introduced the idea that the estimates of people lacking ID is “fanciful,” something some of us have been saying for years.

4. The court lays flat the theory of voter ID opponents: “People who do not plan to vote do not plan to go out of their way to get photo ID.”  It is a matter of choice.  This concept leaves no room for voter ID challenges.

5. The court made a mockery of the expert opinion of political scientists in the case, even if there “were 20 of them” saying something contrary to Crawford.

6. The court squarely rejects disparate impacts as a basis for Section 2 liability.

7. The court squarely rejects the economic deprivation basis for Section 2 liability.

Things are not going well for the folks who constructed a new paradigm of Section 2 to attack election integrity laws.  It looks like their plans are playing out, and not playing out well for them.