This is not a reassuring set of data. They show that white voters fled the Democratic Party in 2010 and minority voters were an even more solid bloc. In other words, minorities and whites were voting differently in record numbers. This is precisely the opposite outcome envisioned by the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The National Journal piece is a must read. The sample size of the data is enormous: 17,504 voters.
“The new data show that white voters not only strongly preferred Republican House and Senate candidates but also registered deep disappointment with President Obama’s performance, hostility toward the cornerstones of the current Democratic agenda, and widespread skepticism about the expansive role for Washington embedded in the party’s priorities. On each of those questions, minority voters expressed almost exactly the opposite view from whites.”
The implications for elections are enormous. Racial polarization in elections almost never has a desirable result for racial minorities. White support for GOP Congressional candidates were at a record level in 2010 – 60% voted for the GOP and only 37% for Democrats. Outside of the northeast and west coast, the disparity was even more staggering. In other words, in most parts of the country, white support for Democratic candidates barely registered any effective strength at all.
On the other side of the ledger, minority support for Democratic candidates was even more cohesive, with 73% percent of minorities voting Democrat. The story pegs Hispanic support at 60 percent. That means black support must be at least above 80 percent and is likely higher.
Views on the President were also extremely polarized:
“First among those was Obama’s performance. Exactly 75 percent of minority voters said they approved; only 22 percent said they disapproved. Among white voters, just 35 percent approved of the president’s performance, while 65 percent disapproved; a head-turning 49 percent of whites said they strongly disapproved.”