Real Clear Politics has this broad redistricting preview. I’ll take issue with the part about South Carolina:
South Carolina – Gains a district. Republicans have some votes to spare here, so expect a new Republican district. The only potential problem is if the Republicans have to draw an additional minority-majority district.
First of all, this assessment rather ignores where the population is growing in the state. Greenville and Charleston are the two places where population is growing. Jim Clyburn’s sixth Congressional district is in the area with the smallest, or negative, growth. So it is not possible that South Carolina will need a second majority minority district. The real question is whether you can even draw a single majority minority Congressional district in 2011, and not violate Shaw v. Reno. The SC-6 already has constitutionally suspect tentacles that grab pockets of BPOP in Columbia and Charleston. If you add a 7th seat in SC, those tentacles will travel an even more constitutionally suspect path. Moreover, the upstate and coast will see greater density of population while the Pee Dee will see a relative decline in population. This doesn’t bode well for keeping Clyburn in a single majority minority district, much less adding a second.